Housing Market Trends in Las Vegas 2024-2025

Housing Market Trends in Las Vegas 2024-2025

February 19th, 2024:

Las Vegas housing is starting the year off strong. The market has picked up over the past month, interest rates have dropped about 1%, and inventory of single-family homes has dropped about 10% over that same period. The imbalance of supply vs demand is holding single-family home prices at an elevated level.

The recent decline in mortgage rates is creating a situation where buyer demand is surpassing the supply of new listings entering the market. This is causing a decline in supply and the average days on market is dropping in tandem.

The emerging data reinforces the shift that has been a consistent topic of discussion for the past few months. This trend is anticipated to persist and gather momentum in the coming months as rates continue to decrease.

The 2024 Las Vegas housing market is active and experiencing a shortage of supply.

 

The market is getting more competitive as we enter the new year. There is a high probability we see multiple offers in 2024. Las Vegas is unique because of its strategic importance in the southwest (hub between multiple major markets), growth/growth potential, and relative affordability.

Here are links to some articles about the economic growth and long-term sustainability of Las Vegas:

Las Vegas Economy

Las Vegas is Experiencing a Post-Pandemic Market Stabilization.

interior kitchen view rental home summerlin west

So What Just Happened with Las Vegas Real Estate?

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing.
 
Within two years, from 2021 to 2022, the Las Vegas market skyrocketed, with single-family residential housing units posting a median price of $482,000—a gain of more than 50 percent by May 2022. 
 
In 2022, the national economy was white hot and characterized by supply chain challenges, low unemployment, and 40-year high inflation.
 
The Fed’s actions to tamp down the economy and get these dynamics in check have resulted in rising interest rates, including residential mortgage rates.
 
The doubling of mortgage pricing quickly put downward pressure on consumer buying power.
 
While the shift feels like the bottom is falling out, the reality is that today’s Las Vegas real estate market dynamics are much different than they were in the mid-2000s.
 
Today, the demand side of the equation remains stable, with more than 70,000 people choosing to move into Southern Nevada in the past year.
 
Assuming these trends hold, new residents should generate incremental demand for housing going forward.
interior kitchen view rental home summerlin west

Why did the Las Vegas market surge 50% during the pandemic?

Las Vegas slogan what happens here only happens here

iBuyers, Institutional Investors and Pandemic Migration...

Increased household formations, institutional investors, iBuyers, pandemic migration, low-interest rates, and government policy helped create a 24-month perfect storm to inflate real estate values in Las Vegas during 2021 and 2022.
 

 

interior dining room view rental home summerlin west

The Post Pandemic Real Estate Market = elevated prices and increased rental rates.

interior kitchen view rental home summerlin west

Institutional Investors

Following the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, corporations and institutional investors sought to increase their acquisitions of residential real estate, including single-family rentals (SFRs).

However, concerns are emerging that history could repeat itself. According to a report from MetLife Investment Management in 2022, within a span of just seven years, up to 40% of single-family rental homes could be owned and controlled by Wall Street entities.

This situation could potentially present challenges not only for regular renters but also for the broader economy. 

An excellent read on this topic was authored by Ryan Dezember, a book called Underwater. Single family home landlords are shifting from “mom and pop” operations to Wall St. titans – virgin territory among financial authors. In Las Vegas, a few hedge funds have setup shop. They’re vacuuming-up all the investment houses and inflating prices. As a result, the traditional “buy-and-hold” SFR rental model is topsy-turvied. This model is replicated across the country, and has portentous omens for the future of residential real estate. (The “Great Recession – Part Deaux!”).

Since the early 2010s, Tricon Residential, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes have each bought thousands of homes. They’ve also added to the housing supply in some cases with built-for-rent communities.

What about these entire purpose-built “build to rent” (BTR) neighborhoods across Las Vegas? Think apartment buildings but single-family home neighborhoods instead….every neighbor is a renter. 

Institutional Investors in Las Vegas

Home Prices are Up.

Rent Rates are Up.

animated drawing of a man sitting at a computer screen watching a chart go up

 

 

To further understand the recent housing trends in Las Vegas, here’s a summary of supply and demand.

Pandemic Supply and Demand

  • Shortage of new homes built during the recession of 2008-2012.
  • Increase in household formations during the pandemic due to the need for more space, work-from-home trends, pandemic separations, divorces, etc.
  • Mass migration to the sunbelt states like Las Vegas due to a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
  • Institutional investors such as Progressive Residential and Invitation Homes (Blackstone Group) swooped into our market and purchased the entry-level SFRs.  During the peak, their purchase price was capped at around $475k. Some institutional investors overpaid for houses to get units, as they had quarterly quotas.
  • Individual investors entered our market from 2010-2022. Cash investors own many detached single-family homes, and Tenants occupy these rental houses.
  •  Governor mandated eviction moratorium through May 31st, 2021. Landlords could not serve eviction notices to get Tenants out, which limited the housing supply. This was extended multiple times but is no longer in effect.
  • Governor limited property rights in 2020 and 2021 by forbidding landlords from serving 30-day “no cause” notices to vacate if a tenant was delinquent on rent. Landlords were having difficulty gaining control of their properties, which limited supply
  • Pandemic Migration: Many houses were rented to people moving to Las Vegas from out of state for remote work or other reasons. Las Vegas saw an unprecedented increase in demand. 
  • Historically low interest rates.
11854 Albissola Ave 011
 
 
In 2024, housing prices are proving resilient.

 

 

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Rental Market Trends

three roommates talking about a house

 

25%-40% rent increases occurred between Fall 2020 and Spring 2022

 

 

tenants applying for a rental
 
Rental housing demand remains strong in Las Vegas, Summerlin and Henderson, NV.
 
Exterior Advertising House Front Yard Photo Rental Property Management Company Henderson Nevada

 

 

Rents have stabilized post-pandemic at elevated rates.
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The Future of Las Vegas...the city continues to grow.

superbowl las vegas 2024

2024 Super Bowl

Slated for February 11, 2024, the Super Bowl will take place at the recently opened Allegiant Stadium and marks the first time Las Vegas and the state of Nevada will welcome the Super Bowl.

 

The 2024 Super Bowl is expected to bring about $600 million in spending to the city. 
 
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Las Vegas is expected to grow its portfolio of pro sports teams to include MLB and NBA in the near future.
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[…] to learn more about Las Vegas housing investment trends in 2023? I have an updated blog post on that topic too. […]

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