Las Vegas just experienced a rapid shift from a severe Seller’s market to predominately a Buyer’s market.
We now have over 5 months of inventory on the market in Southern Nevada. It’s being noted as the fastest shift in history including the great recession.
There is a not a shortage of housing like the media was reporting!
So What Just Happened in Las Vegas?
iBuyers, Institutional Investors and Pandemic Migration
Institutional investors, iBuyers, pandemic migration, low interest rates and government policy created a 24 month perfect storm to inflate real estate values in Las Vegas.
The median price as of today is down an additional 4% from July…4% in 2 weeks. If the trend continues through August, the median price will be down 7.1% in just two months.
Only 3 months ago, the average closing price of a single family home was over 101% of list price. Today, it’s down to 97.1%.
iBuyers like Open Door and Zillow, institutional investors, pandemic migration, low interest rates and government policy (eviction moratoriums early on in the pandemic) helped create the unusual sales and rental market Las Vegas just experienced.
Our market is slowing as post pandemic reality hits the breaks on all things housing.
I believe we are all hoping for a correction rather than a crash…only time will tell.
Pandemic migration led to increase in demand and low supply.
Add to this the mass push by institutional investors to heavily focus on residential rentals in the sunbelt states like AZ and NV the last 24 months (along with purpose built rental houses) and simple economics have shifted. Too much overpriced rental supply and not enough demand.
I call it the perfect 24 month storm: iBuyers, institutional investors and pandemic migration (along with low interest rates and government policy) created the unusual sales and rental market we just experienced. Our market is screeching to a halt too as post pandemic reality hits the breaks on all things housing.
Here’s a real world example of how our market is currently in a correction and why artificial intelligence in real estate can only get you so far.
In Q2 iBuyers overbid in Las Vegas. Open Door purchased a house in my former neighborhood (not my house) May 9th, 2022 for $742,100. List price is now $102,000 under their purchase price!!!
I’m tracking this one for fun and will post final sales price once it sells (still on market).
Open Door has lowered their list price as follows:
Update 9.2.2022: House went contingent on 8/29… that is 95 days after list date with an expected closed date of 12/27/2022. Unusually long escrow. TBD actual sales price. I’ll update around New Year’s Eve.
$632,000 P A -> UCNS 08/29/2022
$632,000 DOWN $640,000 -> $632,000 08/24/2022
$640,000 DOWN $682,000 –> $640,000 08/04/2022
$682,000 DOWN $715,000 -> $682,000 07/21/2022
$715,000 DOWN $737,000 -> $715,000 07/07/2022
$737,000 DOWN $754,000 -> $737,000 06/23/2022
$754,000 DOWN $790,000 -> $754,000 06/10/2022
$790,000 NEW -> A 05/26/2022
The entry level is in a downward trajectory as institutional investors have slowed their purchases and interest rates have increased dramatically in a short period of time. a 3% interest rate increase has a significant impact on a Buyer’s monthly payment.
Cheers to my fellow investors who love this as much as I do.
Our Market Boomed in 2021.
What in the world just happened with Las Vegas housing? Why are local housing prices up 50% in less than 24 months?
To better understand current investment housing trends in Las Vegas it’s best to start with the simple economics of recent housing supply and demand.
Las Vegas Housing Supply/Demand:
Shortage of new homes built during the recession of 2008-2012.
Mass migration to the sunbelt states like Las Vegas due to the pandemic.
Institutional investors such as Progressive Residential and Invitation Homes (Blackstone Group) swooped into our market and purchased up the entry level SFRs. They tend to go neighborhood by neighborhood and started in the less expensive areas of North Las Vegas in early 2021 and have since expanded to other parts of the Las Vegas Valley. During the peak their purchase price was capped at $475k. As of August 2022 their purchases are slowing and their offer prices are decreasing due to our changing market. In some situations these institutional investors overpaid for houses just to get units as they had quarterly quotas. We were see higher offers toward the end of the quarter.
Individual investors swarmed our market from 2010-2017. Almost half of detached single family homes are owned by cash investors and these rentals houses are occupied by Tenants.
There was a Governor mandated eviction moratorium through May 31st, 2021. Landlords could not serve evictions notices to get Tenants out which is limited our housing supply. This was extended multiple times but is no longer in effect.
The Governor limited property rights by limiting landlords from serving 30 day “no cause” notices to vacate if a tenant was delinquent on rent. Landlords were having a hard time gaining control of their properties which was limiting supply
Some homeowner’s were terrified of COVID and would have wanted to sell but don’t want strangers entering their house (limiting supply)
Pandemic Migration: As a real estate broker and property manager I have first hand knowledge that many houses were being sold and rented to people moving here from out of state for remote work or other reasons. We have a tremendous increase in demand
Such a fascinating time in Las Vegas residential real estate. The long-term question is how the institutional investors will impact residential real estate if they ever decide to liquidate due to low return on investment, vacancies or unknown future government policies.
The residential single family residence real estate market was previously reserved for individual investors and accidental landlords. The institutional investors have changed that in 12-18 months time.
Wall Street colliding with main street again…only this tine with the physical asset of housing rather than just housing loans.
What will be the outcome? Only time will tell.
Will the Las Vegas Housing Market Crash in 2023? I hope not! But in depends on what you consider a correction vs. a crash.
What will the investment housing trends in Las Vegas be in 2023, 2024 and 2025? As a local investor who’s been in our market since 2009 I don’t believe our housing market will crash. I do believe it will correct by about 25%….some neighborhoods might experience up to a 40% correction (bording on crashing).
Part of the reason is some of the demand was artificial and caused by a once in a lifetime pandemic.
Another reason is that institutional investors were competing with pandemic migration to the sunbelt region’s like Las Vegas and bidding prices up.
As of September 2022 I’m seeing first hand institutional investor offers slowing and coming in about 10-25% lower than Zillow’s zestimates.
As a property manager on the streets of Las Vegas I witnessed the influx of people starting summer of 2020. I’m now witnessing the exodus of people..
People who moved here because of cheaper housing are realizing our housing is now just as expensive as other major markets with better weather! The desert is hot, windy and the monsoon rains can wreak havoc during the summer months of July and August.
High Winds, High Heat and No Water.......mass migration to the mass exodus?
Most people who migrated here due to the pandemic don’t know how windy the desert is in Spring and this Spring was unusually windy. This entire year has actually been unusually windy. What a nice welcome to all the new people. lol. The summer heat can rise to 117 degrees. The monsoons start in July.
Welcome to the desert!
How many new residents have been shocked by the extreme natural desert elements of sun, wind and rain? And constant chatter by the media of lack of water?
There is a local saying that if you last longer than 3 years in Vegas you’ll never leave. The next 3 years will be very telling how sustainable our local housing market turns out to be!
This type of information never hits mainstream media but will have an impact on our housing. I predict many new residents will *not* be able to withstand the desert heat, high winds and flash floods.
Human factors such as anxiety levels about the lack of water in the desert may make people flee.
Until you live here for a full year it’s hard to understand how hot it gets, how windy it gets and how impactful the monsoon’s rains can be.
The desert is not a friendly environment.
Rent Rates in 2023 and 2024?
The interesting part is I’m seeing a shift the last 30-60 days in rentals too. We are experiencing too much overpriced rental supply and not enough demand.
A 4 bedroom house in West Summerlin 89138 3-6 months ago would have easily rented for $2,500 in 7-10 days. Now there is too much competition, rental houses are sitting on the market longer and there are price decreases.
This goes against what everyone thought would happen.
I attribute it to people moving out of state post pandemic (first-hand experience w/ move-out notices the last 30-60 days) and Owners getting greedy because the media is talking about rent increases.
Rents are coming down in Las Vegas.
25%-40% rent increases occurred between Fall 2020 and Spring 2022
There is post-pandemic downward pressure on rents due to increased supply and decreased demand.
During the pandemic housing economics were artificially flipped…decreased supply and increased demand.
Harvard Pandemic Housing Article
For additional reading, here is an article by the Senior Industry Fellow at Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University titled. It was written at the beginning of the pandemic housing surge:
“THE EXTRAORDINARY AND UNEXPECTED PANDEMIC INCREASE IN HOUSE PRICES: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS”.